Jose Regains Hurricane Status

 

..Hurricane Jose is expected to continue to at least gradually intensify or become a larger system and he is now moving more northward at this time. This northward motion is expected to continue over the next three days parallel to the US East Coast followed by a northeast and possibly eastward motion in 3-5 days. As the wind field expands, the possibility of direct impacts remain in Southern New England in the late Tuesday to Wednesday Night timeframe. Latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory mentions interests from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose with Tropical Storm Watches potentially posted for parts of this area in the next day or two..

..A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from 700 AM to 800 PM Sunday for Southern Rhode Island including Block Island, Southern Bristol County, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands for southerly swell, high surf and rip currents at area beaches from Hurricane Jose. This advisory will likely be extended over the next few days in both time and areal coverage as Jose approaches Southern New England..

..The extent on specifics of other direct impacts besides swells and rip currents along the New England Coast remain uncertain but heavy rain, strong winds, Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England are possible and the most likely scenario at this time understanding uncertainty remains is the potential for tropical storm force conditions for Southeast New England especially for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net management are monitoring the progress of Jose. Since Jose is not near land, they are not active at this time. As an aside, these hurricane nets may need to activate for Maria and her impact on the Caribbean islands Monday Evening through Wednesday..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Jose. This message’s intent, at this very early stage, is to have folks continue the monitoring process. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible some time late Tuesday into Wednesday Night presuming direct impacts of some kind into Southern New England occur and the most likely scenario at this time is tropical storm force conditions in Southeast New England particularly Cape Cod and the Islands though there remains uncertainty with track and the wind field into this region..

Hurricane Jose is currently a 80 MPH category-1 hurricane and is now on the move to the north. Jose’s wind field is expanding and his wind field is expected to continue to expand over the next few days. Jose is expected to continue to track towards the north with some increase in forward speed and should at least gradually intensify or become an even larger storm system over the next few days. Model guidance today has shifted and congealed around a track around the 40 North/70 West benchmark. Some models are a little north and west of the benchmark while other models are a little south and east of the benchmark. The NHC advisory mentions interests from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose and that tropical storm watches could potentially be posted for parts of this area in the next day or two. A High Surf Advisory is now in effect for portions of South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts and this is likely to continue to be posted over the next few days as swell and rip currents from Jose begin and continue to effect the coastline. The model guidance consensus has improved since yesterday implying a potential for tropical storm conditions in the form of heavy rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding in Southeast New England especially for Cape Cod and the Islands pending the track, size and structure of Jose. The track error ‘cone of uncertainty’ continues to cover portions of Southern New England with the latest forecast package with Cape Cod and the Islands and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts at most risk for direct impacts currently with tropical storm force conditions. The track guidance could still shift further to the east or closer to the coast in the next several updates as we are still 4 days away so there remains a level of uncertainty with conditions in the region. A few other key items for consideration as we continue to monitor Jose’s progress:

1.) Jose will strengthen a bit over the weekend and then gradually weaken as it moves up to New England. Models are varying the speed of Jose on his closest approach to the region. This will effect ultimate direct impacts on weather in Southern New England in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe presuming a close enough track to affect portions of Southern New England.

2.) The size of Jose will expand as he moves up the coast and he may start a transition into a post-tropical system which may allow wind fields to expand further including on the west side of the system. It is noted from the 500 PM EDT Saturday 9/16/17 advisory that the wind field is expanding.

3.) The gradient between high pressure in Canada and Hurricane Jose may be a contributing factor to the strong winds over Southeast New England and could allow for some strong winds in other parts of the area north of Southeast New England depending on the track, strength and structure of Hurricane Jose.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track, intensity and structure of Hurricane Jose. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week at a link to that is below:

Hello to all..

..Jose Regains Hurricane Status as of 500 PM EDT – Friday September 15th, 2017..

..Hurricane Jose is expected to continue to at least gradually intensify and he is now on the move to the Northwest at 10 MPH. It is expected to gradually turn North-Northwestward and Northward over the next few days and continue to move parallel to the US East Coast with the possibility of direct impacts in Southern New England in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. Latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory mentions interests from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose..
..The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but swells and rip currents along the New England Coast are likely. Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England are potential threats..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net management are monitoring the progress of Jose. Since it is not near land, they are not active at this time..
..Interests in Southern New England should begin monitoring the progress of Hurricane Jose. This message’s intent, at this very early stage, is to have folks begin the monitoring process. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible some time Tuesday into Wednesday presuming direct impacts of some kind into Southern New England occur..

Hurricane Jose is currently a 75 MPH category-1 hurricane and is now on the move to the Northwest at 10 MPH. Over the next few days, Jose is expected to track more towards the northwest and northward with some increase in forward speed and should at least gradually intensify. Model guidance has shifted a bit closer to the coast with some reliable guidance bringing Jose to near the 40 North/70 west benchmark just south of Nantucket or perhaps within 10-20 miles of Nantucket Island. Other models are further west while others are still further east and there remains considerable spread in the guidance. The NHC advisory mentions interests from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose so that necessitates continuing coordination messages. Given the spread in the model guidance, it is too early to state any direct impacts with the exception of swells and rip currents along the New England coast which are likely as we get into the weekend and early next week. Heavy Rains, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats pending the track of Jose if a closer to the coast impact verifies Tuesday into Wednesday. The track error ‘cone of uncertainty’ now covers much Southern New England with the latest forecast package with Cape Cod and the Islands and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts at most risk for direct impacts currently. A few key items for consideration as we continue to monitor Jose’s progress:

1.) Jose will strengthen a bit over the weekend and then gradually weaken as it moves up to New England. Models are varying the speed of Jose on his closest approach to the region. This will effect ultimate direct impacts on weather in Southern New England in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe presuming a close enough track to affect portions of Southern New England.

2.) The size of Jose will expand as he moves up the coast and he may start a transition into a post-tropical system which may allow wind fields to expand further including on the west side of the system.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Jose. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week at a link to that is below:


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