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Severe Weather Coordination Message

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be possible for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..

..Uncertainities remain with what occurs with convection during the early morning hours of Wednesday and what impacts that has on the environment for later Wednesday. Anyone with outdoor interests particularly given the amount of them occurring for July 4th/Independence Day activities should continue to monitor later forecasts. It will not be a washout and many areas will remain dry but events impacted by thunderstorms, particularly strong to severe thunderstorms, could have issues so monitoring later forecasts remains prudent..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued with a severe weathre threat level of ‘See Text’/5% severe weather probability owing to uncertainties in what evolves for convection and storms during the early morning hours Wednesday. This could get upgraded if conditions become more certain for severe weather for later Wednesday Afternoon and evening.

The two different scenario setup as indicated in the last coordination message remains in play. Wind fields should be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development, the keys for severe weather development later Wednesday Afternoon and Evening are the amount of cloud cover over the region from any shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday Morning and whether expected heating and destablization is realized and sufficient triggering for thunderstorms to develop. The information from the previous message on the two scenarios is brought forward to this message below.

The first sceneario would be that convection that occurs during Wednesday Morning will mitigate heating and destablization lessening the threat for showers and thunderstorms and a severe weather threat for later in the day Wednesday. The second scenario is that this activity moves through quickly and allows for clearing, heating and destablization that would allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and even the potential for a more potent severe weather outbreak. The forecast is uncertain in the regards to the severe weather magnitude but odds favor at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. If enough clearing and other parameters line up, a more potent severe weather episode would be possible. Given the amount of outdoor activities for July 4th, future forecasts should be monitored closely for c!
hanges as the initial set of convection moves through Wednesday Morning and what that means for potential severe weather later Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Wednesday Morning to update the July 4th severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com

http://ares.ema.arrl.org

http://www.wx1box.org

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