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Severe Weather Coordination Message

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut anytime after 8 PM this evening possibly even extending to the Midnight timeframe and into the overnight hours of early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC has extended the Slight Risk area further east for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue until any potential threat for the evening hours has ended or the threat for any activity has passed. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

The complex in Central New York State fell apart entering the area and failed to fire off any new strong to severe thunderstorms. Models remain fairly insistent on increasing destablization and a possible subtle trigger for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms via the warm front and possibly a complex of storms or Mesocale Convective System to organize somewhere in New York State and traverse into the region. The threat timeframe is after 8 PM and could potentially be as last as the Midnight timeframe into early Tuesday Morning. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat remains contingnent on the following:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex to organize depending on sufficient triggering otherwise the threat will be more isolated. There remains the possibility that the region will not be affected by severe weather overnight but the situation bears close watching due to certain favorable severe weather parameters.

As any possible severe weather wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. SPC has pushed the slight risk area further east into Southwest New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with NWS Taunton factoring in a risk for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe remains late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once any Monday severe weather threat has passed and the severe weather parameters of the atmosphere for T!
uesday will be better understood.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue through late Monday Evening or early Tuesday Morning pending any severe weather threat materializing. A shortened coordination message will be posted when Ops for any activity Monday Evening/early Tuesday Morning is secured. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message for any severe weather Tuesday will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Currently, SPC has the Slight Risk area farther to the west for Tuesday but NWS Taunton feels isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur over much of the County Warning Area away from the coast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

At 1240 PM today, Doppler Radar showed a dieing area of convection over Central New York State, it is possible that this system could refire producing an isolated severe thunderstorm threat by mid-afternoon though current trends are that this area of convection continues to weaken. Other activity could organize behind this dieing area convection after 2-3 PM. There could then be a lull in activity followed by a greater chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with possible Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) development around or after 8 pm this evening continuing into early Tuesday Morning. The warm front is reorienting itself from the CT River Valley to near Cape Cod and the islands and will continue to slowly move northward today and this evening. Much of Western and Central New England are in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger and sun and destablization continuing after a brief interruption from any convection and clouds m!
id-afternoon, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats in the mid to late afternoon followed by a potential MCS and a greater threat for strong to severe thunderstorms later in the evening. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat now remains contingent on these factors:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex around or after 8 PM tonight after more isolated activity earlier in the day. It is also possible that most of the activity will occur this Monday Evening versus the mid to late afternoon period.

As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. Currently, SPC has the Slight Risk area farther to the west but NWS Taunton feels isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur over much of the County Warning Area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. This will be the last coordination message on the threat for Monday. The next coordination message will be posted Monday Evening for the Tuesday severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

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