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Severe Weather Coordination Message for Wed 5/16/12

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across Southwest New
Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon into
Early Wednesday Evening. Damaging Winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy
downpours and urban/poor drainage flooding also possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight
risk for severe weather in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and
Northern Connecticut for Wednesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon into
early Wednesday Evening..

Tonight, showers are moving through portions of Southern New England ahead of warm
front which will move through the area overnight into early Wednesday Morning. A
cold front will move into Eastern New York and Western New England Wednesday
Afternoon into early Wednesday Evening. At this time, conditions are expected to
clear out over the area to allow for sufficient heating and destablization. Wind
fields should be strong enough to support isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms in a continuous line or one or two short lines of isolated to
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and hail are the primary
threats with heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage flooding also possible. The
greatest threat for severe weather is in Southwest New Hampshire and Western
Massachusetts from the Worcester area west and in Northern Connecticut through
Hartford and Tolland Counties. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk
for severe weather fo!
r Wednesday Afternoon into early evening for this area.

Caveats to the severe weather potential include the amount of cooling aloft, degree
of heating and destablization if clearing doesn’t occur as quickly as currently
anticiapted and location and intensity of the wind fields over the current SPC
depicted slight risk area. This will be better understood on Wednesday Morning.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon into
early evening. Another Coordination Message will be issued by 900 AM Wednesday to
update the threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2
Convective Outlook:

SkyWarn Severe Weather Coordination Message #2

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across
Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut late
Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Damaging Winds and hail are the primary
threats with heavy downpours and urban/poor drainage flooding also possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton continue to be in agreement on a
slight risk for severe weather in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and
Northern Connecticut for late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remains possible late Wednesday
Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..

At 735 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of heavy rainfall over Rhode Island and
Southeast Massachusetts extending to the eastern tip of Long Island NY with lighter
showers moving eastward across Southwest Massachusets and Northwest Connecticut.
This activity should move out of these areas by late morning. Also, at 735 AM,
satellite imagery shows clearing moving into East-Central New York into Western New
York with the cold front about to enter Western New York. This cold front will move
into Eastern New York and Western New England late Wednesday Afternoon into
Wednesday Evening.

Based on Satellite imagery and computer model trends, conditions are expected to
clear out over the area to allow for sufficient heating and destablization with
temperatures going into the 70s to possibly 80 degrees. Wind fields should be strong
enough to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in a
continuous squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or as one or two short
lines of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and
hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage
flooding also possible. The greatest threat for severe weather remains in Southwest
New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts from the Worcester area west and in Northern
Connecticut through Hartford and Tolland Counties. The timeframe of severe weather
appears to be after 4 PM this afternoon. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a
slight risk for severe weather for late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday evening
for this !
area.

Further east, the loss of daytime heating should mitigate the overall threat but an
isolated strong or severe thunderstorm could occur in these areas. The overall
threat in the east, however, is much less due to coastal influence and the timing of
the front past peak heating.

Current caveats to the severe weather potential remain and include the amount of
cooling aloft, degree of heating and destablization if clearing doesn’t occur by
midday/early afternoon and the timing of the cold front into the area. This will be
monitored throughout the day today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible late Wednesday Afternoon
into Wednesday evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this
threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and Ops at
NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2A

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms now likely across Southwest
New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts, and Northwest Connecticut..
..A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 900 PM for Cheshire County NH,
Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and Litchfield
and Hartford Counties of Connecticut. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor
drainage flooding from heavy downpours are the primary threats. Areas close to the
current watch area should also monitor the situation..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 3 PM through the watch
expiration timeframe. Below is the Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280 statement,
NWS Taunton County Outline and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..
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