Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in Western Massachusetts from Central Worcester County Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut west anytime between 3-9 PM Monday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area into a marginal to slight risk of severe weather and there remains a slight risk of severe weather across New York, Vermont & Northeast Pennsylvania..
..Key question on any severe weather potential is how close a frontal system/trough gets to this area and whether cooling temperatures aloft get close enough to this area along with heating and destabilization of the day is sufficient to realize severe weather potential. Wind fields are marginally sufficient for severe weather if instability levels and cooling aloft works far enough east into the Marginal to Slight risk area and the risk area has shifted a bit more east indicating the cooling aloft could make it far enough east to affect parts of our coverage area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely mid to late Monday Afternoon into the evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms in Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. This will be the last complete coordination message on this severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook: